Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb80a4ead793f3ba736a1943136d21e53e51134807b9657864d471b659d346e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 7c | 5,806$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.49 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 74c | 5,000$3,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.6 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 2,815$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.32 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 18c | 2,221$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 18c | 1,250$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 1,095$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.33 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 73c | 829.91$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.55 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bc…03efbacked Over | 13c | 769.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Under | 65c | 752.77$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 44c | 530.99$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.57 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Under | 76c | 365.49$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 76c | 353.14$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 15c | 341.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 192 | 44.3%85 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Over | 9c | 303.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cb…bdcdbacked Under | 67c | 298.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 71c | 280.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…2088backed Over | 19c | 274.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 19c | 234.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 9c | 220.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 56c | 178.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…776fbacked Over | 18c | 175.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 24c | 164.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 38c | 152.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 75c | 134.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…49d8backed Under | 76c | 131.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 44c | 126.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed Under | 77c | 118.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 59c | 111.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2281…d7a4backed Over | 33c | 106.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 28c | 96.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 56c | 88.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Over | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 19c | 69.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Over | 18c | 68.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 65.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 65c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 17c | 58.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…980cbacked Under | 74c | 58.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Over | 29c | 52.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…7f3cbacked Over | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…29e5backed Under | 75c | 49.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f61…3eb5backed Under | 65c | 42.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…2008backed Under | 73c | 41.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…ec47backed Under | 71c | 39.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 32c | 37.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…ce25backed Under | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee6…1678backed Over | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 66c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Under | 71c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.