Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f91067736c2fadbcdac196b02601aa7c39ef4b4eeb18c5b1e7e94d36e50a2fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 74c | 358.47$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…c269backed Yes | 32c | 248.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 73c | 234.37$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 226.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 221.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 221.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 52c | 193.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 170.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 163.79$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 12c | 140.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 127.69$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 126.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 126.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 75c | 126$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 120.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked Yes | 46c | 117.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 114.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 105.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 35c | 96.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 88.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 84.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 24c | 81.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 78.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 77.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…7d58backed No | 52c | 77.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 51c | 71.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 68.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 27c | 67.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 33c | 60.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 59.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 58.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 22c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7385…0c36backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 55.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 70c | 52.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 42c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 39c | 48.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe420…3bd8backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 73c | 41.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 40.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 35.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 57c | 34.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 34.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 39c | 33.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 35c | 31.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 76c | 28.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 24.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 58c | 23.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 64c | 20.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 72c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.