Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x739e8f3c5d3f31355873fa290d804305641e02449013fb6ef06881736e8280fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 735.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 67c | 392.18$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 258.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 242.38$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…c269backed Yes | 52c | 232.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 208.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 199.55$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 36c | 196.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 51c | 160.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 148.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 7c | 143.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 49c | 138.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 136.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 132.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 107.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 106.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 90.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 50c | 90.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 84.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 35c | 81.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 79.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 45c | 78.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 77.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 68.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 25c | 64.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 52c | 64.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 63.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 59.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…558fbacked Yes | 39c | 54.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 46.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed Yes | 43c | 46.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 41c | 40.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 59c | 38.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 38.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 45c | 38.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 45c | 37.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 51c | 36.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 65c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 76c | 33.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 55c | 32.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 31.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 64c | 31.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 80c | 24.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eab…d4bfbacked No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 64c | 23.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 15.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.