Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b8a1da6450431743318d222e239a4a5d30d875a169d79c90c5135aa718d62eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 62c | 8,388$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 61c | 4,325$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.09 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 38c | 3,941$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.65 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 2,877$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.57 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 2,529$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 61c | 1,672$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.1 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 1,283$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.4 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 38c | 1,200$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 38c | 784.53$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.41 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 38c | 700$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 78c | 642$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 39c | 641$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.01 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 27c | 613.73$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.7 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 16c | 520$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.8 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 493.48$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.78 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 39c | 350$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 334.58$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.97 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 49c | 270$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 75c | 269.39$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 38c | 260$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 17c | 253.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.88 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 63c | 248.83$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.79 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 39c | 214.65$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Over | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 38c | 180$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 38c | 160$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 38c | 160$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 40c | 144.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 48c | 137$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 30c | 133.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 38c | 116$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 66c | 110.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 70c | 109.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 39c | 108.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 39c | 104.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 67c | 94.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 67c | 86.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 61c | 82.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 57c | 50.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ca…5ed4backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…cfaabacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 54c | 46.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 74c | 45.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 65c | 40.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 62c | 31.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 40c | 30.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…288cbacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 65c | 27.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…e673backed Over | 70c | 24.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Over | 61c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Over | 60c | 22.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 67c | 20.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.