Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28bf1a0fac2a71b28f4733e87cd43c8f8a27848fde3d898365f1b504fc646b0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 21c | 3,502$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.74 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 1,405$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.42 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 40c | 1,252$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 74c | 1,252$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.27 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 62c | 702.73$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.89 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 667.37$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.05 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 70c | 655.93$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.78 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 466.69$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.07 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 36c | 299.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 20c | 295.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 138$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 79c | 118$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 37c | 69.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 79c | 45.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 29c | 39.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 79c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked Under | 79c | 37.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 39c | 35.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 80c | 34.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 40c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Under | 79c | 17.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…ba99backed Under | 79c | 16.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 80c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.