Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7554a21b4ea85ea23e3504f762b56386fd5c21510dcc63ae32a9358e8f7a31d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 40c | 19,121$7,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,570.03 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 4,271$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.65 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 3,917$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.35 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 3,617$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.91 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 60c | 1,600$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 40c | 1,260$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 61c | 1,050$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.49 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 51c | 1,005$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 827.33$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.41 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 646.39$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.55 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 60c | 643.91$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.56 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 523$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Over | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 61c | 436.54$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 411.05$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 68c | 400.52$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 39c | 350$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 40c | 339.9$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.49 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…2196backed Over | 49c | 325$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 60c | 260$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 41c | 224$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 61c | 217.2$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 60c | 208$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 60c | 208$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 61c | 183$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 61c | 177.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 60c | 116$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 41c | 114.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 63c | 101.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 61c | 93.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 87.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 54c | 79.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 48c | 78.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 74.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Under | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 45c | 65.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 61c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 50.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 39.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 49c | 38.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 61c | 32.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 51c | 31.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 62c | 24.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…f8dfbacked Over | 49c | 23.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 62c | 23.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 62c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 53c | 20.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f4…16f3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 62c | 19.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 61c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.