Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45fa93f4b8d117351281fdc1ec8bbf1d807ed9dd5681b7d7bcf59478e469f7ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked No | 0c | 18,497$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 47c | 529.79$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.79 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 36c | 244.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.03 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 201.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 193.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 170.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 164.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 150.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 41c | 134.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed No | 73c | 121.38$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 117.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 112.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 28c | 109.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 31c | 103.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 69c | 94.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 84.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 83.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 79.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes | 42c | 70.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 44c | 70.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 67.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 31c | 65.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 27c | 62.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 61.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 59.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 71c | 56.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 62c | 55.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes | 31c | 53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 38c | 52.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 52.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 61c | 47.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 64c | 47.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 47.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 28c | 46.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 54c | 44.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 35c | 44.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 43.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 43.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 40.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 27c | 40.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 34c | 37.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 36.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 36c | 36.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 35.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 66c | 34.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 36c | 34.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 67c | 33.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…0cf2backed No | 73c | 33.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 33.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 30.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89da…b5f2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 36c | 28.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 46c | 27.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 37c | 27.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 26.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…b5acbacked Yes | 47c | 26.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 48c | 26.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 60c | 26.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 25.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 65c | 22.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 22.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 69c | 21.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 52c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 65c | 19.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…d6fabacked No | 67c | 16.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…7795backed No | 66c | 15.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.