Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e9a0c9bca0160fc235dbd39a8a8e49d1ce0b0541cbb5ab1fe279d5b443b77a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 59c | 526.64$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.82 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 62c | 473$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.11 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 46c | 280$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.78 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 272.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 193.1$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 189.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 183.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 165.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 144.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 138.6$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 61c | 130.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 56c | 126.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.64 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 57c | 119.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 46c | 117.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes | 52c | 115.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 114.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 108.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 101.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 90.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 89.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 47c | 89.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 56c | 88.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed Yes | 44c | 85.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 46c | 82.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 82.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 74c | 79.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 64c | 76.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…b5acbacked Yes | 43c | 74.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 53c | 64.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes | 35c | 56.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 56.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 55.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 67c | 53.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 44c | 50.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 49.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 56c | 49.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 44c | 48.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 64c | 48.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 47c | 47.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 45.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 45.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 43.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed No | 53c | 42.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 43c | 42.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 54c | 40.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 39.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 58c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 49c | 38.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 38.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 47c | 36.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 35c | 31.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 49c | 30.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 55c | 27.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 70c | 26.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…7aa0backed No | 62c | 25.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 24.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 62c | 24.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 65c | 23.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…51ecbacked No | 49c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 47c | 21.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 67c | 20.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 62c | 20.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 63c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.