TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes59c526.64$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.8240226.9%108 W · 294 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed No62c473$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.114965.3%32 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes46c280$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7833561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c272.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.145,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c193.1$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.565,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c189.38$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c183.36$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.982,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes60c180$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.874940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No43c165.71$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.96,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes27c144.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.071,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No45c138.6$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.813,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc705…b62fbacked Yes61c130.95$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.962850%14 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes56c126.62$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6422171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes57c119.26$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.417443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No46c117.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0945130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes52c115.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes41c114.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No39c108.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.914,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No44c101.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4429953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No73c90.75$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.32,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes36c90$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes54c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.41,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No40c89.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.991,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes47c89.58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes56c88.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0450…bd51backed Yes44c85.92$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.822653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No46c82.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes52c82.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.013,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No74c79.41$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7322350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes64c76.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.271,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0f…b5acbacked Yes43c74.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.631338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes53c64.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes44c63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6913941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes35c56.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No55c56.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No49c55.78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.454,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes50c55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.515345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff7…dbfabacked No67c53.93$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6510081%81 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.894,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No44c50.8$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525335.2%89 W · 164 L-0.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked No43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.54537.8%17 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1790734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes45c49.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.489,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No56c49.27$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.721,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes44c48.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6119734%67 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes64c48.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed No47c47.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3722959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes49c45.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.452,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No50c45.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.695,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes53c43.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.979,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No54c43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7857545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda60…7e00backed No53c42.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.022035%7 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No43c42.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.921,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes54c40.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.877732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.813738.7%53 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No40c39.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.653,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb8d…0511backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203652.8%19 W · 17 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes58c39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6291444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes49c38.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.733,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No48c38.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9431050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes47c36.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.268645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.332,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No50c32.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2522853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed Yes35c31.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.173450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes49c30.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7f90…b54abacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0af…cc7dbacked No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.24148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8609…401ebacked Yes50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No36c29.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1917744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No66c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7899571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes55c27.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4244536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No44c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.232,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No70c26.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8319057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x530e…7aa0backed No62c25.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No54c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.552,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No45c24.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.782,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No62c24.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.041,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes65c23.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd283…51ecbacked No49c22.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes70c22.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes52c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4793734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes47c21.78$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.259262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No57c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0747738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked No67c20.73$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9382742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes62c20.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.642951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes63c17.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1865353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c16.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.752,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.