Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4da98a5fa7e353e68d4c9e6284ecac38ed4010349507b536938402e07bc908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x733e…0a36backed Yes | 28c | 435.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 255.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 14c | 185.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 9c | 165.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 14c | 159.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…9840backed Yes | 23c | 145.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 142.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 11c | 136.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 13c | 128.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 16c | 123.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 27c | 117.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 105.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 95.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf931…e064backed Yes | 18c | 93.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 92.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 77c | 82.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 18c | 81.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 81.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 78.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 76.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 28c | 71.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 65.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 63.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 22c | 59.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…0c47backed No | 78c | 59.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 56.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 28c | 53.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 28c | 36.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 33.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 73c | 30.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 30.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 29.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 80c | 27.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 68c | 25.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 22.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 79c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 71c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.