Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb492efba5b8527faab109c364ac8cc87afc1e99c36723aa27e5cb335147bf888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 23c | 550.36$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 387.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 328.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 9c | 244.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 21c | 189.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 17c | 178.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 168.34$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 150.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 131.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 124.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…0a36backed Yes | 23c | 109.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes | 18c | 108.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 99.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 31c | 96.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 90.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 90.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 87.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 86.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 77.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 20c | 75.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 68.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7a…a1c8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 75c | 61.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 53.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 51.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…421abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 38.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 37.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 33.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 77c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 22.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 79c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 20.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 80c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.