Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa036b20d3529827a0d58e3312c4c5c5bcfae02bcb553a0c052b21e1b69831442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 70c | 311.92$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…0a36backed Yes | 44c | 220.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 202.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 177.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 155.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 135$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 31c | 127.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 125.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 47c | 124.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.59 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 101.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 46c | 99.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 97.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 93.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 87.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 47c | 85.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 27c | 82.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 56c | 82.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 80.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 55c | 79.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 77.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 48c | 71.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 65.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 63.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d3…93d8backed No | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 48c | 61.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 41c | 59.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 44c | 59.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…3cedbacked No | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 43c | 56.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 55.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 54c | 55.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 52.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 54c | 52.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 52.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 43c | 51.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 44c | 48.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 42c | 47.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 46.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…9840backed No | 44c | 45.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 45.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…1d3dbacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7a…a1c8backed Yes | 44c | 44.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…53b4backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 35c | 42.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 57c | 41.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 40.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 43c | 39.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 41c | 35.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 56c | 34.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf3…f2fcbacked Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 31.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 79c | 31.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 60c | 31.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 30.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 36c | 29.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 54c | 29.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 70c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 43c | 28.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 56c | 26.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 58c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 24.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…9b90backed Yes | 65c | 24.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 60c | 22.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…4f1fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…ff36backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.