Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb5e9d34d06e02fe98f81198171fd81d78fe66ee4870d24800314fc5ad006e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 7,087$2,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,691.4 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 56c | 5,027$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 48c | 4,592$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 2,477$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.7 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Under | 63c | 1,768$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 1,200$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 27c | 925.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 28c | 800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…fe2dbacked Over | 35c | 660$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5969…5bedbacked Under | 74c | 631.96$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 622.3$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.23 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f4adbacked Under | 67c | 449.46$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 26c | 444.15$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 60c | 440.46$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…0c5abacked Over | 39c | 407.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…6282backed Under | 68c | 389.7$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…892fbacked Under | 65c | 388.27$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 32c | 386.73$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 23c | 280.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 262.64$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 35c | 241.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 62c | 214.13$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…0a4cbacked Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 18c | 199.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 77c | 186.17$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 35c | 172.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 48c | 168.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 15c | 160.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +10.6wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…5be4backed Under | 64c | 156.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 22c | 137.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 34c | 118.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 56c | 114.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 58c | 113.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 53c | 109.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 107.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Under | 66c | 106.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 62c | 101.61$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 26c | 101.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 26c | 100.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5d…6096backed Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 64c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 35c | 99.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 17c | 98.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 23c | 87.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +9.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 50c | 77.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 29c | 66.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…b131backed Under | 63c | 63.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Under | 65c | 61.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 57c | 59.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Over | 34c | 51.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed Under | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 59c | 47.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137c…5430backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 56c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 50c | 35.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…24aebacked Over | 45c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…145cbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 61c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 64c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 53c | 22.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 80c | 16.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Under | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…1dd8backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +290.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.