Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ffbfe381e984eef65c9412b6063f436b218ed45a6c7be61b4cb91160f48fa01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 12,142$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.9 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 19c | 5,279$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 6c | 4,476$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.52 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 69c | 4,470$3,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 31c | 1,804$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.1 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Under | 31c | 738.71$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Under | 32c | 721.98$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 22c | 702.04$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 66c | 467$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 33c | 454.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 69c | 416$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 30c | 344.33$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 11c | 296.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010f…6c1abacked Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 32c | 288.75$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 69c | 253.62$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 20c | 252.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +1,407.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +1,407.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +1,909.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 190$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Over | 70c | 172$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Over | 69c | 143.48$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 31c | 138$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 68c | 109.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8c…1991backed Over | 68c | 97.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 17c | 96.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 69c | 95.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 79c | 87.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed Over | 75c | 83.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 30c | 78.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 24c | 76.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 68c | 69.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 31c | 68.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 31c | 67.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…1d3abacked Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 68c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Over | 70c | 25.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Over | 69c | 18.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 68c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.