Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41316442cef6fc1874660a9aa80cd7bb6b9fa277bd9ce4d8280d833bfe7557a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Lorientof Paris Saint-Germain FC, FC Lorient
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 21c | 366.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked FC Lorient | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 8c | 247.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 28c | 239$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 28c | 158.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…f958backed FC Lorient | 72c | 138.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed FC Lorient | 70c | 73.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked FC Lorient | 70c | 68.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…f413backed FC Lorient | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +9.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6efe…8540backed Paris Saint-Germain FC | 30c | 60.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Lorient | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed FC Lorient | 71c | 30.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked FC Lorient | 72c | 28.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…cb5bbacked FC Lorient | 76c | 26.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Over won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.