TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ligue 1 · resolved market

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC Lorientof Paris Saint-Germain FC, FC Lorient
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,554 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Paris Saint-Germain FC50c39,689$19,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,844.615257.7%30 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed FC Lorient50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0006347.6%30 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed FC Lorient50c7,772$3,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,886.1724349.4%120 W · 123 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked FC Lorient50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed FC Lorient68c4,978$3,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.681,91645.5%872 W · 1,044 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed FC Lorient50c3,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7505151%26 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed FC Lorient50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5005151%26 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed FC Lorient50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0003250%16 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Paris Saint-Germain FC28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed FC Lorient50c1,300$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6505251.9%27 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed FC Lorient50c1,300$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6504854.2%26 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9f9…0eaabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC26c1,142$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked FC Lorient51c1,100$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Paris Saint-Germain FC50c1,068$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.8930448%146 W · 158 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC49c1,035$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.9726346.4%122 W · 141 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked FC Lorient78c1,026$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.64560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Paris Saint-Germain FC50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed FC Lorient50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5004548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked FC Lorient50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4504951%25 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed FC Lorient50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4005251.9%27 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed FC Lorient50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4004447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked FC Lorient50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4004753.2%25 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Paris Saint-Germain FC41c757.52$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC Lorient61c706.98$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.791,41540.8%577 W · 838 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Paris Saint-Germain FC31c700.27$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.923324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked FC Lorient50c593.55$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.7726354%142 W · 121 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked FC Lorient49c521.29$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.332060%12 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Paris Saint-Germain FC26c514.07$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…1204backed Paris Saint-Germain FC51c511.26$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked FC Lorient50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Paris Saint-Germain FC2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked FC Lorient50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2505552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked FC Lorient50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2504953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked FC Lorient50c460$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2306357.1%36 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Paris Saint-Germain FC40c400$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Paris Saint-Germain FC29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1161540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed FC Lorient50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004847.9%23 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Paris Saint-Germain FC51c391.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8622927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Lorient69c311.45$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4933145%149 W · 182 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed FC Lorient50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1505352.8%28 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed FC Lorient50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked FC Lorient50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1504650%23 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbf…126cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC50c235$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4cd…a98dbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC50c200.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked FC Lorient72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563658.3%21 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed FC Lorient50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003652.8%19 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd31c…dac9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC35c185$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.752619.2%5 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-46.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed FC Lorient59c175.15$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3848649%238 W · 248 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed FC Lorient50c150$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759954.5%54 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9531…18ffbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362825%7 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-45.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ad…1f82backed Paris Saint-Germain FC42c135.71$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked FC Lorient50c120.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.266051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Paris Saint-Germain FC50c116.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.26714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick56cpaid-71.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Lorient49c110.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2387344.3%387 W · 486 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958a…874fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC50c110$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed FC Lorient69c100.78$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.785160.8%31 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed FC Lorient72c100.56$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.162748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed FC Lorient50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked FC Lorient50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508250%41 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked FC Lorient51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4924051.7%124 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed FC Lorient44c99.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5613144.3%58 W · 73 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe569…e759backed Paris Saint-Germain FC46c91.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-64.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FC Lorient50c88.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3346450.4%234 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC36c88.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.314352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd323…c53fbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed FC Lorient49c81.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.178957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa334…beaebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC33c76.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Paris Saint-Germain FC49c75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.752462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC49c70.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.984067.5%27 W · 13 L+9.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+99.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x398d…b8d6backed FC Lorient59c68.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked FC Lorient49c62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.625151%26 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Paris Saint-Germain FC50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb61…25e3backed Paris Saint-Germain FC50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4959348.4%287 W · 306 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Paris Saint-Germain FC24c58.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143727%10 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fb…e34ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick60cpaid-44.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed FC Lorient50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2517756.5%100 W · 77 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked FC Lorient50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2513655.9%76 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ffa…6822backed Paris Saint-Germain FC31c48.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC38c43.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.29205%1 W · 19 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick28cpaid-84.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked FC Lorient50c42.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2716644.6%74 W · 92 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7163…c592backed FC Lorient51c42.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.62837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a0…2a86backed Paris Saint-Germain FC39c41.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-10.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xda80…698fbacked FC Lorient49c40.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e0…72a6backed Paris Saint-Germain FC50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ff…d0dfbacked FC Lorient51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked FC Lorient51c39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.114546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Paris Saint-Germain FC39c35.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7917817.4%31 W · 147 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC48c35.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Paris Saint-Germain FC36c34.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.569050%45 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked FC Lorient71c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.071450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed FC Lorient50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf33f…51dabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e4…4d8cbacked FC Lorient72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed FC Lorient47c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8322854.4%124 W · 104 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed FC Lorient50c24.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0518351.4%94 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Paris Saint-Germain FC52c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.442352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked FC Lorient72c20.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.885560%33 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…edb9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.