Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5d3ddba99abe50b85ac4e6e619a27f7307045cc1b1ec9906b4850a220243649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…1108backed Yes | 8c | 248$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.48 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed No | 12c | 239.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 139.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 128$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 19c | 127.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 126.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 29c | 114.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 63c | 107.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 97.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 53c | 91.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 76c | 89.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 82.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 13c | 77.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 61c | 75.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 51c | 68.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 68.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 24c | 59.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 56.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 46c | 55.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 37c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 68c | 51.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 53c | 51.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 28c | 47.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 45.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 53c | 42.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 30c | 42.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 42.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 43c | 40.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…c9a9backed Yes | 75c | 39.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 34.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 37c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 31.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 31.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 27.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 24.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed No | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 65c | 16.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.