Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0125fb1fcc94b33f0fc8398f8e9c5bb55e361a333a93222c7addc6d5e9a5b247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82df…0f66backed No | 61c | 759.17$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.69 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 68c | 324.89$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 39c | 184.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 16c | 159.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 73c | 134.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.57 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…5cb3backed Yes | 18c | 120.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 30c | 94.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 81.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…4567backed Yes | 57c | 70.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 42c | 65.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 61.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 42c | 59.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 69c | 44.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 31c | 42.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 48c | 36.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 42c | 34.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 62c | 31.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 30.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…fa48backed No | 66c | 25.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1b…4b83backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked Yes | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 71c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed Yes | 66c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.