TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7036…6d2ebacked Yes29c245.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c237$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.175,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes31c229.15$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.282,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c209$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c155.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes24c115.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1103…57e3backed No79c115$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.156355.6%35 W · 28 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c112.3$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.758,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes43c106.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4619427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes22c105.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes53c104.39$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.93145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c99.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c96$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.885,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes32c95.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.895,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes25c95.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9212733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No70c90.03$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5628737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No79c84.55$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.762,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes14c81.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1443139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes30c70.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.155135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No75c66.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3247175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No76c65.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.841,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes38c59.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6641033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No68c58.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes27c57.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.432040%8 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No45c54.49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.74546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c1…12cebacked Yes32c50.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.122835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b6…3804backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+194.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1972125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cc…744abacked Yes31c47.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No76c46.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.136,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97c5…018bbacked Yes54c46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.034665.2%30 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes30c44.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5552533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No66c44.08$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9919052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ad…8506backed Yes23c43.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No68c43.25$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8446667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes48c43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7613430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No61c38.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8910133.7%34 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No55c37.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.194,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked No59c37.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.578036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked No71c37.36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8451733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes54c37.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb23…10edbacked No75c37.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.171656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed No80c37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411757.3%67 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc00c…ab4abacked No70c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.55479.6%43 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No59c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.383360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes48c34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3224442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No69c32.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa13c…d9dbbacked Yes34c31.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.953353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes34c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.161464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.412,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4da…cf3bbacked No75c28.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x364a…4363backed No70c28.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.516863.2%43 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No72c27.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8947569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes55c27.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0562137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked No67c26.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6982742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6584…3f95backed No72c26.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.463056.7%17 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.544,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5965…33b5backed No80c25.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.133161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94c0…a805backed No72c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4967…f1f9backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c24.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No61c24.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No48c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.964148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No67c22.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5834369.4%238 W · 105 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No51c22.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.041,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No58c22.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.461,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No76c22.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.263,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No68c21.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.068,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.351,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.518948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2833…015ebacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No69c18.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6782562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6380…4446backed No77c16.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.843100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bf6…24f9backed No69c15.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.847335.6%26 W · 47 L-8.1wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No73c15.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1422853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe88e…03e8backed No68c15.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No69c14.58$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5211258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No71c14.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.148919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.