Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ff7b5023a726ae66f003a3eeb7e888fe526158d8bf35372165781819cd82770
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7036…6d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 245.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 237$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 229.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 209$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 155.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 115.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 79c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 112.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 43c | 106.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 105.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 53c | 104.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 99.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 95.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 25c | 95.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 70c | 90.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 84.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 14c | 81.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 30c | 70.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 66.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 76c | 65.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 38c | 59.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 58.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 27c | 57.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 45c | 54.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 32c | 50.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…3804backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 31c | 47.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 46.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 44.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 66c | 44.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…8506backed Yes | 23c | 43.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 68c | 43.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 61c | 38.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 37.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 59c | 37.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 71c | 37.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…10edbacked No | 75c | 37.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa13c…d9dbbacked Yes | 34c | 31.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…cf3bbacked No | 75c | 28.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 70c | 28.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 55c | 27.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 67c | 26.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 72c | 26.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…f1f9backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 24.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 61c | 24.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 22.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 22.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2833…015ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…4446backed No | 77c | 16.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed No | 69c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 73c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 68c | 15.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 69c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 71c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.