Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4efdc0c9a7cd97b0a903e3c15317fdb0a25f0032c4842d8d084d6c181aac46c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 20c | 330$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 295.13$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 245.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 43c | 225.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.91 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 201.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked Yes | 71c | 199.26$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 37c | 175.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 152.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 134.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 70c | 133.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 131.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 130.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 113.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 113.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 31c | 112.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 112$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 56c | 105.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a80…d682backed Yes | 69c | 101.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 100.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 23c | 99.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 98.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes | 49c | 89.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 39c | 87.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 58c | 86.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 81.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 77.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 46c | 76.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 72.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 33c | 72.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 68c | 69.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 48c | 63.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 52c | 61.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 58c | 59.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 59.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 31c | 58.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 58.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 56.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 52c | 56.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…f861backed Yes | 24c | 56.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 76c | 55.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 21c | 51.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 47.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 24c | 44.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 44.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 38c | 42.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 62c | 40.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 40.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 38.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 48c | 38.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 48c | 37.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 36.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 78c | 36.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes | 30c | 35.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 48c | 35.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 34.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 48c | 33.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 62c | 32.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 79c | 32.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 31c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…8506backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 46c | 30.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 46c | 30.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 59c | 30.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 69c | 29.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 29.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 46c | 28.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 68c | 22.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…c1a5backed No | 68c | 21.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 20.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.