Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Georgia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a516deb57075b2d628aa948048b4c542d685424a1f5ed5fe4ec3f2844775399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Georgiaof Georgia, Lithuania
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40d5…79a5backed Georgia | 31c | 1,196$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lithuania | 76c | 1,148$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.24 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…8897backed Lithuania | 69c | 728.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Georgia | 16c | 591.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.7 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Lithuania | 74c | 578.11$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.7 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lithuania | 74c | 576.85$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.63 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Georgia | 27c | 410.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.89 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Georgia | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Lithuania | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Georgia | 29c | 290$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Lithuania | 71c | 290$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 304 | 63.5%193 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lithuania | 68c | 225.12$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Georgia | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Lithuania | 67c | 188$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Georgia | 20c | 176.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.77 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Georgia | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Lithuania | 78c | 172.37$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Georgia | 16c | 167.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 161 | 16.8%27 W · 134 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…73a2backed Lithuania | 73c | 154.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Lithuania | 69c | 110.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Lithuania | 69c | 109.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Georgia | 20c | 101$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Georgia | 26c | 95.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Georgia | 31c | 95.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed Georgia | 33c | 91.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Georgia | 34c | 84.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…9c45backed Georgia | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Georgia | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Georgia | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Georgia | 30c | 55.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Georgia | 27c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Lithuania | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Georgia | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…b089backed Georgia | 31c | 36.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…20e6backed Lithuania | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…62fbbacked Lithuania | 71c | 22.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Georgia (-1.5)this page
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Georgia (-2.5)Lithuania won
- Spread: Lithuania (-1.5)Georgia won
- Spread: Lithuania (-2.5)Georgia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.