Fifa International · resolved market
Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce2c1e737d452d950f441a451c644ae3b3ebf4ad5c46f6da48750f5f1e250171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 2c | 4,662$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…79a5backed Over | 24c | 4,271$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 2c | 4,093$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 29c | 2,576$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.31 | 228 | 13.2%30 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 1,595$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Under | 79c | 1,385$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 4c | 966.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 21c | 739.39$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 24c | 700.42$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.1 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 74c | 553.95$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 24c | 502.07$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 429.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc6…f773backed Over | 27c | 418.74$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3a…c3c8backed Over | 26c | 378.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 76c | 344.12$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 167 | 58.7%98 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 76c | 306.51$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 100 | 68%68 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 80c | 176.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 80c | 173.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 13c | 97.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Over | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 76.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 73c | 74.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 403 | 55.3%223 W · 180 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…5403backed Under | 75c | 44.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Under | 76c | 42.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Under | 79c | 38.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Under | 70c | 33.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 33.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d65…c693backed Under | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…c637backed Under | 77c | 29.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d8…ad50backed Under | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6ba6backed Under | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 80c | 18.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…6833backed Under | 76c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…a696backed Under | 79c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 3.5this page
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Lithuania vs. Georgia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Georgia (-1.5)Georgia won
- Spread: Georgia (-2.5)Lithuania won
- Spread: Lithuania (-1.5)Georgia won
- Spread: Lithuania (-2.5)Georgia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.