Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7e39cfea007e87aa47e20472fc01bb6c16def5b7a31d809d5c32327947d2c36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 1c | 1,360$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 425.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 9c | 254.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 15c | 213.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 178.62$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 135.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 47c | 103.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 20c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 80.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 76.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 75.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 36c | 58.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 56.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 38c | 49.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 41.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 54c | 40.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 36c | 39.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 61c | 33.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 30.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 42c | 27.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 70c | 25.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 74c | 25.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 41c | 24.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 74c | 23.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…f405backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 69c | 18.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.