Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd472c7530d897e89e05e1283454218faad1768fb10690db3f4ec39375a02ccf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,540 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Over | 73c | 7,099$5,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,151.28 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 6,303$3,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,735.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 2,455$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 2,272$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.65 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 27c | 2,133$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.94 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 28c | 2,004$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Over | 52c | 1,352$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 25c | 1,252$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.12 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 33c | 1,091$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.79 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 22c | 909.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 7c | 794.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 765.19$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.86 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 37c | 700$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…0171backed Over | 62c | 576.45$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2346backed Over | 25c | 552.66$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 77c | 532.47$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 72c | 429.29$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 44c | 386.36$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Under | 30c | 360$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 343.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.72 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.99 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Under | 73c | 274.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 73c | 274.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Under | 58c | 268$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 29c | 249.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 56c | 239.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 225.61$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…c7b4backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…99febacked Over | 11c | 198.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…5587backed Over | 60c | 165$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 28c | 138.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 44c | 127.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 76c | 113$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 39c | 104.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Over | 60c | 101.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 74c | 101.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 27c | 91.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 28c | 90.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5e…9c6ebacked Over | 58c | 89.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 23c | 86.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 74c | 85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 44c | 84.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 58c | 79.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 44c | 77.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 24c | 74.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 68.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…fa72backed Over | 66c | 68.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Under | 62c | 66.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 71c | 62.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 29c | 58.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 72c | 57.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 74c | 53.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 72c | 51.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 29c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 23c | 43.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 77c | 43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 29c | 41.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 44c | 40.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 44c | 38.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…c675backed Over | 77c | 27.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed Under | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.