TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$322,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,790 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Over48c99,125$47,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,525.636358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c80,485$39,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,479.1634144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d30…a42dbacked Over47c50,040$23,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,288.411560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under60c29,408$17,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,629.123,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under52c26,500$13,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,72016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under48c21,018$10,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,890.796465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x07d8…9f3fbacked Over52c15,272$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Over51c11,765$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over53c11,321$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0004949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under49c10,333$5,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,289.214456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Under52c10,242$5,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,916.164658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,599.916647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Under52c9,075$4,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,355.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Over40c8,977$3,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,590.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Over52c8,462$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4001330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7125…23eebacked Under54c8,041$4,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,698.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under56c7,375$4,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.962,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Under52c7,000$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3602759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Over53c6,706$3,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.172951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under53c5,746$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,701.181,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4007057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Under54c4,234$2,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,928.018448.8%41 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.985461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under52c3,846$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.153961.5%24 W · 15 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9136…8e9dbacked Over53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Over54c3,704$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d0…d2f0backed Over51c3,673$1,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87360%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under50c3,479$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.435856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Over53c3,008$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5941952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Under53c3,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.993554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Over46c2,826$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over52c2,602$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3532015%3 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-67.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under54c2,568$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.382846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under54c2,462$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.521546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Over53c2,251$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9769…7cd7backed Over42c1,950$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.331838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+47.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.084647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over46c1,900$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Over53c1,738$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.37per pick49cpaid-68.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Under51c1,381$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.827254.2%39 W · 33 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Under54c1,106$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.031770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Under54c1,019$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.521931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed Under52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802065%13 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+28.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under48c999.97$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.982152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over51c992.16$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5069856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc1d…faffbacked Under54c989.72$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over47c977.42$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.395848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under52c962$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.769459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Over28c952.67$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.889532.6%31 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Over33c899.9$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.975151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over13c887.97$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.443740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3848764.4%56 W · 31 L+10.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x631c…7bfebacked Over19c744.34$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.953420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Under54c702$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.921464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under53c599.99$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2825455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under54c556$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.765145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x142e…f6e4backed Over54c521.26$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.481553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under54c499.98$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.9948146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under52c450$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over46c425.34$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b84…2f73backed Under49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.16988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over38c394.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15012635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Under55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.64475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Over40c357.3$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.926339.7%25 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff2a…3319backed Over53c330$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.940%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc253…5800backed Over47c320.89$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.824269%29 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over46c319.36$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4138748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1448461.9%52 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14110855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Over50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14415454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Under52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14412162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Under51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.121050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under60c280.11$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.061,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over18c271.89$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9422157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under55c267.37$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.6118353%97 W · 86 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over39c259.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.45236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Under49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.53557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92de…87eebacked Over54c231.48$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under62c230.37$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.0730647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Over47c230$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.18143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Over46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006147.5%29 W · 32 L-8.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over19c210.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4026433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under52c210$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.84650%23 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb3…78e9backed Under49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Under52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968261%50 W · 32 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7cb…5e13backed Under47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9613256.1%74 W · 58 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over50c198$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9918958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58c…4dffbacked Under54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under54c185.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.182157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under53c180$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.620545.9%94 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9907…c1cfbacked Over46c177$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.