Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x403f886405db6f16768659d05b69dc1d0adb31af903b14cfe91d9478de6e625a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,191 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 2,765$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.1 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 6c | 1,892$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…b299backed No | 48c | 1,302$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,076$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.05 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 45c | 990.65$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.21 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 53c | 933.73$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.2 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…d4d9backed Yes | 53c | 550.66$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 345.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e37…cfbdbacked No | 47c | 282.71$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed No | 47c | 268.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 151.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Yes | 55c | 106.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 48c | 93.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…cfc3backed Yes | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Yes | 56c | 85.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3656…6a0cbacked No | 54c | 84.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…ebb0backed Yes | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Yes | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 57c | 52.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Yes | 53c | 50.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…3483backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c55…62e2backed No | 48c | 45.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…65c9backed Yes | 53c | 44.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…8ca1backed Yes | 56c | 44.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 47c | 44.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked No | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x333b…c557backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 43c | 32.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 46c | 27.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 69c | 25.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.