Ligue 1 · resolved market
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe46e42abe30899003bd0320b6b71ae79a05398251ae51a1258c933e69065dd36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 58c | 6,411$3,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,876$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.24 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 48c | 1,721$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.23 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 28c | 1,560$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 72c | 1,480$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.9 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 48c | 950$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 39c | 823.05$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.1 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Over | 57c | 530$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…4806backed Over | 46c | 431.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 345.02$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 27c | 260$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 176.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 11c | 146.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 117 | 53.8%63 W · 54 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 27c | 104.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 34c | 93.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 74c | 88.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 65.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…b9f9backed Under | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…49babacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 63c | 42.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 41c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 70c | 22.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…57ffbacked Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.