Ligue 1 · resolved market

AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda78b788fe2a700d0e67515724896cd6dc2beb22fa4577fa26faa5dfe4be6c99

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $46,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,766 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4064…f741backed Over	47c	23,481$11,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,445.12	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under	17c	4,846$818 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$818.34	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+3.4wins	+0.11per pick	15cpaid	+107.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under	53c	3,200$1,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,696	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under	53c	2,400$1,272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,272	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	52c	2,290$1,184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,183.62	873	44.3%387 W · 486 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked Under	34c	2,224$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.61	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f7c…7a19backed Over	49c	2,000$980 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	65cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	53c	1,993$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,056.43	525	50.1%263 W · 262 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	52c	1,929$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,007.31	243	49.4%120 W · 123 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	45c	1,482$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.98	1,916	45.5%872 W · 1,044 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under	38c	1,406$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538	227	45.8%104 W · 123 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under	53c	1,400$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under	53c	1,200$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over	50c	1,120$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Under	53c	1,100$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Over	49c	1,000$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over	59c	1,000$585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.58	266	60.5%161 W · 105 L	+25.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over	58c	961.94$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.2	71	49.3%35 W · 36 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under	53c	800$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Under	53c	736$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.08	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under	53c	700$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under	53c	650$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.5	60	51.7%31 W · 29 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	63	57.1%36 W · 27 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Under	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	52c	520.95$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.64	263	54%142 W · 121 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under	53c	480$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.4	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under	53c	480$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.4	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over	67c	473$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.09	98	63.3%62 W · 36 L	+7.2wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	40c	432.88$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.3	260	46.2%120 W · 140 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over	49c	410$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.1	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over	75c	401.33$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.33	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.36per pick	64cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	49	51%25 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	304	48%146 W · 158 L	-10.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133b…5856backed Over	55c	399.99$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	35c	364.92$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.14	593	48.4%287 W · 306 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under	53c	320$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.6	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under	50c	282.79$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.29	166	44.6%74 W · 92 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under	53c	280$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.4	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under	53c	280$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.4	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	51c	257.22$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.85	464	50.4%234 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under	51c	224.01$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.25	47	53.2%25 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	80	60%48 W · 32 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	67cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Under	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-6.7wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-69.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x987e…8d7abacked Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-51%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Under	53c	160$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.8	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed Under	53c	160$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.8	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe931…97f3backed Over	57c	144.11$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.97	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	48c	137$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.42	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under	53c	120$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.6	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under	53c	120$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.6	46	50%23 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed Under	51c	114$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.14	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Under	53c	105$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.65	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.9wins	-0.16per pick	53cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over	49c	103.09$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.58	380	56.6%215 W · 165 L	+11.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	63	30.2%19 W · 44 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa203…11bcbacked Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-3.3wins	-0.22per pick	42cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff89…9c06backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x030d…8e95backed Over	56c	92.11$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.53	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04e5…070fbacked Under	54c	87.78$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc311…c154backed Over	60c	84$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8acc…cc29backed Under	53c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under	53c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f9…92e3backed Under	54c	79.93$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.49	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Over	49c	62$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.62	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over	47c	60.64$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.84	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	99	54.5%54 W · 45 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	43c	59.86$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.83	331	45%149 W · 182 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under	51c	55.04$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.07	96	57.3%55 W · 41 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	164	48.8%80 W · 84 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f46…1db8backed Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	54cpaid	+29.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98ee…31cabacked Over	47c	33.42$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.71	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Under	51c	32.47$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over	46c	32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.28	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under	52c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over	65c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Under	51c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under	48c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over	76c	27.75$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.71	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe953…7be7backed Under	51c	22.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b7…c24abacked Over	49c	22.67$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.56	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	46c	22.21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.99	63	60.3%38 W · 25 L	+9.2wins	+0.15per pick	46cpaid	+39.8%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7fe3…6580backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	177	56.5%100 W · 77 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	136	55.9%76 W · 60 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5this page
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5Over won
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)OGC Nice won
Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event