Ligue 1 · resolved market
AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d610ae56d28d1da3ce0b4b075967fb9cb9f77943424a98be053d197eaabd768
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 11c | 2,549$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.34 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 75c | 1,095$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.53 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 74c | 955$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.3 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 28c | 920$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…4939backed Over | 71c | 153.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 152.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 74c | 104.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 75c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 26c | 52.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Under | 25c | 46.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 1.5this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5Over won
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5Under won
- AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)OGC Nice won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.