Asian League · resolved market
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68ce39cae3b400b70c4892f1ef4fcca81b2efb6621a91b83287b18cdf3e80b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,025$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.09 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Over | 38c | 1,800$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 43c | 876.35$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.83 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 677.61$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 66c | 491.26$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.79 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 42c | 470$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.65 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 410.89$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.31 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 29c | 350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65be…5546backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…37e4backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 257$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…63b6backed Under | 56c | 246.73$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 55c | 206.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 168.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc59…df13backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Over | 72c | 138.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 110.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…5702backed Over | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6b58backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc407…0875backed Under | 28c | 91.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 65c | 81.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 28c | 74.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b4…87bfbacked Over | 77c | 74.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -8.8wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 54c | 60.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 68c | 58.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa8…a410backed Over | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5629…50dabacked Under | 48c | 41.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Over | 78c | 38.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 55c | 32.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 61c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…1485backed Over | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 66c | 24.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…a19bbacked Under | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…cad6backed Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5this page
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 1.5Over won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 3.5Under won
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)FC Machida Zelvia won
- Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.