Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aa11f5fd59b9bd0be9773e1b49a1ca425d6b5c89aaaff2e7c5dfa56bbe1557a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 25c | 1,621$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.71 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over | 76c | 1,229$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 816.89$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.95 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 24c | 743.42$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.83 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Over | 67c | 560$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 33c | 551.62$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.19 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 77c | 391$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 367.49$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…90bdbacked Over | 80c | 364.53$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Under | 24c | 289.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 20c | 241.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 76c | 197.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 21c | 158.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 31c | 135.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Over | 79c | 110.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…c418backed Over | 79c | 100.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 80c | 99.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 24c | 98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 77c | 95.46$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 22c | 69.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 75c | 64.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…7a39backed Over | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 23c | 51.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under | 21c | 50.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 80c | 50.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Over | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Over | 79c | 38.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Over | 80c | 33.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…2c98backed Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 76c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…4d25backed Over | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 77c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 70c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 70c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 70c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 70c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 80c | 13.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.