Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd71a9a41ff35379aa4ad79a6bec2ca19b8cbddd140acaae77e82a4b5270a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 4,078$2,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.56 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 40c | 2,600$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 21c | 2,117$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.61 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 1,504$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.85 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…681bbacked Over | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 17c | 836.32$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 15c | 683.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 28c | 676.81$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.05 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 675.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.02 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 570.18$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.91 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 79c | 473.28$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.77 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…959fbacked Over | 35c | 269.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 72c | 244.47$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 67c | 195$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 68c | 182.38$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Under | 56c | 173.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 30c | 89.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked Under | 57c | 84.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 17c | 84.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Under | 59c | 82.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb813…f0efbacked Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 41c | 59.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 45c | 57.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…2245backed Over | 59c | 50.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 25c | 47.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…f50abacked Over | 46c | 41.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5this page
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
- Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5)RC Strasbourg Alsace won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.