Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe84d2135183ace6e8336ef9d6d8b0a94057985802e77d596e6dbcac6bb2dfec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 3,503$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.71 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 3,049$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.62 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…8393backed Over | 28c | 2,856$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 32cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x651c…1084backed Under | 1c | 1,961$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 1,500$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.53 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Under | 19c | 1,100$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 37c | 1,099$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.68 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 687.03$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.17 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed Over | 57c | 527.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.77 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 53c | 377.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.49 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 29c | 299.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 66c | 252.55$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.38 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 27c | 237.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 13c | 171.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…70adbacked Under | 49c | 167.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 60c | 140$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 60c | 137.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Under | 74c | 128.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -7.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 72c | 126.19$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 79c | 115.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Under | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 79c | 91.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 72c | 84.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 73c | 82.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 73c | 80.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 53c | 63.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 71c | 54.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 55c | 52.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 48c | 47.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 26c | 41.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Under | 26c | 40.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 53c | 39.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Under | 63c | 39.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 65c | 34.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 76c | 32.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 61c | 29.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 65c | 28.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 73c | 26.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 52c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 56c | 20.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.