Asian League · resolved market

Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b00adebaef6b2b317a7760b95387f018c3a03a4c25d77dd62078854241fd759

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: May 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,956 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Asian League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	47c	10,299$4,870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,428.74	5,963	46%2,744 W · 3,219 L	+46.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Under	53c	5,000$2,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,649.98	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over	51c	4,732$2,428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,303.63	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under	50c	3,637$1,828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,828.03	196	33.2%65 W · 131 L	-11.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	49c	3,074$1,494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,579.69	1,235	49.9%616 W · 619 L	+9.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4907…f72abacked Under	48c	2,900$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+21%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Under	49c	2,208$1,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,075	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-4.2wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf421…cff4backed Under	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa742…68c5backed Under	48c	1,998$959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$959.19	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	52c	1,978$1,028 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$949.6	1,749	50.7%887 W · 862 L	+30.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	49c	1,531$758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$773.59	1,766	50.2%887 W · 879 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	49c	1,480$732 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$747.87	2,520	39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under	53c	1,449$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.17	183	53%97 W · 86 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over	54c	1,384$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$634.19	245	23.3%57 W · 188 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under	53c	1,200$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.99	120	50%60 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Under	52c	969.92$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.65	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over	47c	890.3$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.58	198	56.1%111 W · 87 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under	53c	700$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371	131	54.2%71 W · 60 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under	52c	658.61$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.48	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Under	53c	600$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318	172	47.1%81 W · 91 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Over	47c	599.03$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.3	97	50.5%49 W · 48 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Under	53c	591.99$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.75	168	56%94 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09f4…dac0backed Over	53c	529.99$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$247.1	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.6wins	+0.19per pick	45cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Under	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3b…5a53backed Over	43c	475.6$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.09	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under	53c	400$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	215	52.1%112 W · 103 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over	47c	332$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.96	142	47.2%67 W · 75 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Over	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over	53c	300$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141	84	35.7%30 W · 54 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Over	45c	299.99$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165	226	42.5%96 W · 130 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Under	47c	272.94$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.28	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2444…4252backed Over	51c	271.97$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.27	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+3.7wins	+0.19per pick	49cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under	53c	259.98$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.79	150	50.7%76 W · 74 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Under	53c	220$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.6	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9327…ab25backed Under	49c	205$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9522…7af0backed Under	52c	190$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.66	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+4.9wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	57c	178.59$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.95	1,522	54.9%835 W · 687 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under	53c	160$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.8	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Under	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	188	38.8%73 W · 115 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	50c	156$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.32	1,991	54.1%1,078 W · 913 L	+29.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under	53c	156$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.68	150	54%81 W · 69 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Under	53c	155.62$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.48	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-7.3wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under	52c	126.43$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.21	179	53.6%96 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd19c…160fbacked Under	49c	123$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.27	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x981b…b8eabacked Under	50c	120.8$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	184	45.7%84 W · 100 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	51c	107.6$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.61	1,080	41.7%450 W · 630 L	-15.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	16c	107.45$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	2,528	42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L	+53.0wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Over	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under	48c	105.82$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.79	92	46.7%43 W · 49 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed Over	48c	103.39$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.15	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over	50c	100.8$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.4	1,651	50.9%840 W · 811 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	57c	93.84$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.48	478	60.3%288 W · 190 L	+15.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under	53c	85.86$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.51	182	56%102 W · 80 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over	53c	84.74$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.83	201	50.7%102 W · 99 L	+14.3wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over	65c	84.11$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.62	471	55.8%263 W · 208 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	51c	82.39$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.64	1,357	45.5%617 W · 740 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Under	53c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	101	56.4%57 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked Over	47c	76.39$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.49	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+5.5wins	+0.26per pick	36cpaid	+67.1%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over	41c	73.17$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.17	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Under	53c	65$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.45	82	50%41 W · 41 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	48c	57.3$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.8	396	49.7%197 W · 199 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6328…1bf3backed Over	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	29c	53.8$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.01	346	59.8%207 W · 139 L	+49.2wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over	48c	51.48$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.52	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…0bb1backed Over	42c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.08	57	24.6%14 W · 43 L	-7.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-43%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over	48c	42.83$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.14	401	56.4%226 W · 175 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	53c	42.77$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.1	158	50%79 W · 79 L	-14.3wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x344f…1a45backed Under	47c	42.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc56b…3afdbacked Under	48c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under	46c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	424	51.2%217 W · 207 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Over	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over	49c	39.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.04	117	64.1%75 W · 42 L	+11.7wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6639…6bcfbacked Under	47c	39.31$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.32per pick	61cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Over	48c	38.32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.82	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	65cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x505a…bb61backed Over	50c	38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Over	48c	37$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.26	154	70.8%109 W · 45 L	+16.1wins	+0.10per pick	60cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Under	56c	35.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	64	65.6%42 W · 22 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Over	47c	33.93$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.94	107	52.3%56 W · 51 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Over	48c	32.15$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.72	216	43.5%94 W · 122 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Over	49c	30.39$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	304	64.8%197 W · 107 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	63cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	67c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	398	61.8%246 W · 152 L	+56.9wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	143	49.7%71 W · 72 L	-7.0wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Over	48c	29.33$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.25	125	51.2%64 W · 61 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	+5.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Over	53c	27.27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.82	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-4.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over	47c	26.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.73	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb435…b97cbacked Over	51c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	30	70%21 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.17per pick	53cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over	43c	24$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.76	113	47.8%54 W · 59 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd91…b49abacked Under	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Over	52c	19.9$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.56	154	55.8%86 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5this page
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Over won
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Over won
Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event