Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f8c1e61fd15a8ca11b41f3736d3b08f8497f9991913bd7caf47f464cc919194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 13,712$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,867.49 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 77c | 1,948$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 16c | 1,759$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.65 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,071$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.03 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 14c | 714.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.21 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…78ffbacked Under | 77c | 649.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 45c | 373.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.33 | 146 | 29.5%43 W · 103 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 55c | 265$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…3d1abacked Under | 55c | 179$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 68c | 163.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.49 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 142.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 23c | 108.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Over | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Over | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 36c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 47c | 42.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 55c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 53c | 27.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…fe3fbacked Under | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)Kashiwa Reysol won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.