Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd4568f88e222cce0a1ae1c846935d4cc494ac6b29089321c4033a75c53edee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,721 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 1,453$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.52 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 1,332$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.39 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 24c | 837.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 630.32$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 31c | 614.12$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.32 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 77c | 577.88$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.55 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Under | 36c | 548.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 18c | 546.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 27c | 500.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.69 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 19c | 485$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.85 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 17c | 462.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.17 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…39fabacked Over | 80c | 406.79$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 67c | 405.94$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.33 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 78c | 382.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…53b3backed Over | 79c | 368.35$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 10c | 333.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 45c | 231.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 78c | 220.68$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 29c | 208.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 202.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 66c | 194.57$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 27c | 184.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.33 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 65c | 133.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 67c | 117.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 64c | 111.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 76c | 102.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 102.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 51c | 95.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 53c | 93.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…83f9backed Under | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Under | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…3f87backed Over | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Under | 40c | 60.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 20c | 57.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 51c | 55.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 45c | 53.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 80c | 49.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 47.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 67c | 37.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…ce9cbacked Over | 80c | 35.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Under | 34c | 33.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Over | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 32.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Over | 34c | 31.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 79c | 30.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Over | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 74c | 15.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b15…7af7backed Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…3d00backed Over | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.