Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc4a76bcd62a1f2bd9b9e1aa0a35ec5f1fc8a55aa7d4315adc2a6056b1672d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,028 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 1,478$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.27 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 69c | 1,365$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.79 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 36c | 999.77$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.92 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 27c | 937.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 26c | 703.25$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.77 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 76c | 688.89$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.26 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 66c | 645.04$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.99 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…d473backed Over | 33c | 526.28$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Under | 58c | 472.41$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 378.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.07 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 34c | 369.82$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Under | 61c | 186$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 66c | 151.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 151.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Under | 67c | 136.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 134.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Under | 67c | 132.15$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…f103backed Under | 67c | 131.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd760…8e82backed Under | 67c | 126.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Over | 19c | 106.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 69c | 70.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 73c | 68.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Over | 27c | 68.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 46c | 58.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 31c | 50.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 64c | 38.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Over | 40c | 37.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Under | 76c | 28.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Under | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 42c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Under | 68c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 65c | 18.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.