Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbb0f702f600ff6e61adf68622aaf83f0c18a3c9053ce92138bd44563a1fd99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3355…08e0backed Yes | 2c | 540.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 491.95$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes | 36c | 381.15$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 78c | 337.59$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.17 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 51c | 293.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 290.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 273.11$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 228.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 199.4$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 35c | 160.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 148.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 43c | 147.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 145.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 19c | 139.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 98.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 19c | 80.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 40c | 77.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 78c | 61.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 73c | 52.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 47.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 42.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 41.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 78c | 33.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 62c | 25.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 22.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 72c | 22.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.