Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4276f8b705ee63ce5a1af92a64167eac1480e291ae622cfbfadc89d18c6ac224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 69c | 289.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 279.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…870bbacked Yes | 10c | 198.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 6c | 187.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 10c | 177.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 154.97$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 134.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 114.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 12c | 114$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17cc…4e1bbacked Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 99.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 33c | 89.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 79c | 88.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 71c | 87.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 80.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 71.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 16c | 69.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 62.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 61.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 60.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 29c | 41.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 77c | 32.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 64c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 35c | 29.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 63c | 16.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 74c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 72c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.