Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9e6fbf837980aa5dafe3e314d6398c05522e3887a1269dfafc2dad8abf8d5f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 10,114$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,995$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed Yes | 0c | 3,843$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 1c | 3,837$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 0c | 3,034$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 59c | 381.39$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.45 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 4c | 366.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 349.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 344.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 3c | 319.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 283.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 35c | 229.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 6c | 203$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 199.4$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 196.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 173$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 6c | 164.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 33c | 142.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 137.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ee…41efbacked Yes | 10c | 128.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 111.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 14c | 77.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 68.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 29c | 51.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 29c | 44.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.