Serie A · resolved market
Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf33d12ffb13024306cd2b8f79b3d185f561ccd2920b4904e0648d7eb128fefa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 52c | 9,505$4,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,572.48 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 8,304$4,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,161.03 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 4,332$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021.99 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 37c | 2,750$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…cdb3backed Over | 63c | 2,737$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…b85ebacked Over | 64c | 1,250$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…9e0ebacked Over | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 37c | 945.95$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 63c | 907.65$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.91 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 753.59$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.73 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 36c | 626.42$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.51 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 49c | 598.7$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.81 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Under | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 36c | 320.87$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 36c | 243.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…e139backed Over | 42c | 238.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Under | 61c | 238.24$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 228.35$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.76 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 47c | 220$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 36c | 215.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 65c | 206.03$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de4…b032backed Under | 36c | 204.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Under | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…ca5dbacked Over | 52c | 191.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 61c | 186.89$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 150.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 35c | 142$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Under | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…a17cbacked Over | 39c | 127.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 51c | 118.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 63c | 118.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…8984backed Under | 43c | 116.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…b0b8backed Over | 46c | 108.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Over | 62c | 102.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…ab15backed Over | 50c | 99.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…7df6backed Over | 50c | 99.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 95.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…1959backed Over | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 39c | 90.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 64c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 55c | 72.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9891…102bbacked Over | 64c | 70.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 58c | 66.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 40c | 59.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 36c | 57.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 59c | 45.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Under | 51c | 35.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 36c | 33.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Over | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 55c | 29.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3b…913dbacked Under | 56c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 64c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…1ff8backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…0d48backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5this page
- Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5Over won
- Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 3.5Under won
- Pisa SC vs. US Lecce: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-1.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: Pisa SC (-2.5)US Lecce won
- Spread: US Lecce (-1.5)Pisa SC won
- Spread: US Lecce (-2.5)Pisa SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.