Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba3d62679624b23b89cbaaaa2da93395ea74340e0b0d86464176f1bab64e9d09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 21c | 928.32$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.11 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 539.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 11c | 299.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 266.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 228.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 20c | 220.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 170.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 13c | 153.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 147.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 16c | 124.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 103.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 99.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 16c | 98.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 82.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 81.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 18c | 74.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…6a56backed Yes | 18c | 74.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Yes | 23c | 73.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 65.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 58.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 80c | 55.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 52.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 19c | 52.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 75c | 51.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aec…6e19backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…8046backed No | 79c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 22c | 49.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…43a7backed Yes | 31c | 44.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 78c | 39.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 38.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 69c | 37.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 79c | 34.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 30.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9eb…c7b3backed No | 76c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 70c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…cb91backed No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.