TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No18c1,812$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.364,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1c9c…5da9backed No3c1,042$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-42.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes68c699.19$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.55,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes78c541$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8521641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No43c280.76$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.573,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked No62c266.52$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9351733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c227.89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.6417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes52c224.17$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes31c207.66$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4873927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No66c196.97$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.22,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes72c188.31$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.3127079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes78c172.76$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7613588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes80c168.86$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9854154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes47c161.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.284,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c157.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76fe…43a7backed Yes27c149.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.771435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes53c149.12$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82bb…7e81backed No66c142.36$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.51566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c130.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes54c124.37$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.782040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No79c121.35$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.532,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c120.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.449,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No29c113.19$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.832,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No56c113$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9145162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked No69c106.94$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7911164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes54c105.24$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.561,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes34c100.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9517536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes31c100.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.5668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.145,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedec…d967backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7117926.3%47 W · 132 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3718337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes30c99.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.91,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No51c94.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.153,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.665,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes31c79.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.982343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+28.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes80c74$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No22c69.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed Yes71c67.92$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.712564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes40c65.05$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c63.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.931,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No34c63.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.634,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes23c62.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.181,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…3a35backed Yes34c59.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0410536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c59.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.413,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c56.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.96,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes73c54.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.851,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked No76c50.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7418862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec21…c83fbacked No79c50.63$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407166.2%47 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-15.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2aec…6e19backed Yes25c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.532839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3312735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No77c44$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No69c42.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9946667.6%315 W · 151 L+0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid+334.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No49c40.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7714745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2738138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0da…4162backed Yes28c39.75$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6214953.7%80 W · 69 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes71c37.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.829439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No47c36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9248919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes31c35.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3940237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No74c35.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0982562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes53c34.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166830.9%21 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No32c32.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.481,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes68c31.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.093748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No79c31.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5424370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No65c30.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.531219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c29.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0953353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes68c29.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5461676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6370…f483backed Yes61c29.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No69c28.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8557264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes56c27.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.911,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x608f…02a8backed Yes71c25.07$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.272759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52e…8f98backed No68c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.052638.5%10 W · 16 L-7.2wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-41.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6469…a047backed Yes59c23.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.493360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…c848backed Yes68c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.28714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-79.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes54c21.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6615152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.864960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6557…8474backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.97156.3%40 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x746d…2db5backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157467.6%50 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No61c17.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes78c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.747060%42 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No70c16.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3122853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No69c15.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.448661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No75c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2525766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47cf…5732backed No76c14.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.156160.7%37 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No78c14.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.139968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.