Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5fe9c69802fe437b6d9668501a87574e2f503ce7ab6765dd48a0871cb610543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 477.08$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 65c | 397.51$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.06 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 34c | 375.55$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 249.61$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 216.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 211$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 206.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 173$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 66c | 138.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 131.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 131.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 73c | 126.53$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 33c | 121.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 55c | 105.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 105$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 104.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 103.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 100.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 22c | 92.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 70c | 92.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 46c | 90.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 67c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 14c | 89.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 67c | 86.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 85.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 27c | 84.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 78.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 78.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 41c | 76.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 76.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 52c | 66.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 64.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 61.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 55c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 75c | 61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 60.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 36c | 55.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 51.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 40c | 51.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…b5acbacked Yes | 38c | 49.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 39c | 49.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 72c | 48.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed No | 74c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 47.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 47.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 42.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 40.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 61c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 76c | 39.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 39.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 63c | 39.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 43c | 38.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 68c | 38.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 35.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 35.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 34.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 30.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 39c | 25.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 25.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…d0f6backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 23.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 75c | 23.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 61c | 23.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 21.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 21.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 51c | 21.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…93c2backed No | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 61c | 19.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 80c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcd…e673backed No | 64c | 15.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.