Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116ada91468c483fa9e5f407cb4552be7331e75a202f99c3d2ae641160b1be1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 22c | 974.12$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.59 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 477.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 9c | 394.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 327.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 9c | 274.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 212.08$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 168.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 163.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 149.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 121.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 14c | 104.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 102.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 95.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 93.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 19c | 86.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 28c | 72.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 29c | 64.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes | 20c | 55.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 80c | 55.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 80c | 46.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 45.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 45.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 78c | 26.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 76c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.