Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56cbe30f0328f3b6298a4930913402a7c92eb1e921d4fc44f4d8cc21e293cb03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 48c | 378.06$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 351.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 312.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 226$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 41c | 200.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 189.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 33c | 179$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 42c | 175.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 173$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 160.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 160$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 137.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…b4dabacked Yes | 40c | 126.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 122.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 41c | 119.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 115.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 114$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 108.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 53c | 104.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 48c | 103.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 51c | 101.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 99.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 95.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 67c | 91.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 90.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 87.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 35c | 86.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 52c | 83.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 75c | 81.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes | 35c | 80.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 79.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes | 32c | 77.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 24c | 73.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 71.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 67.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 36c | 63.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 36c | 55.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 52.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 40c | 50.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 50.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 63c | 49.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 48.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 48.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 29c | 47.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 50c | 45.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 33c | 43.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 42.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…b5acbacked Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 38c | 37.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 53c | 37.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 36.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 34.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 31.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 36c | 31.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 59c | 29.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 28.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd869…48cabacked Yes | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 62c | 27.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2122…efcabacked No | 67c | 27.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 25.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 25.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e0…63b3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 23.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 54c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 47c | 21.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 52c | 20.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 20.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…7de1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 57c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 62c | 18.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 56c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.