TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,387

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x103e…78b5backed Yes48c378.06$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18016134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes19c351.38$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c312.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.855,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No65c299.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c226$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.473,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes41c200.02$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4326540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c189.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed Yes33c179$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.383450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes42c175.47$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8774338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No73c173$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.335,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c160.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c160$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No74c137.46$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.912,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e4…b4dabacked Yes40c126.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504571.1%32 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c122.22$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.634,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes41c119.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.171,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes43c115.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes33c114$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.323,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c108.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.599,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes53c104.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553056.7%17 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes48c103.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9191444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Yes51c101.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.631338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes40c99.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4081848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c95.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.293,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ff…6ab4backed No67c91.55$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.034965.3%32 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No64c90.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8657264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No55c87.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.444,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed Yes35c86.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.917443.7%76 W · 98 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked No52c83.77$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0351733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No75c81.79$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7722350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes35c80.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.12240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No67c79.96$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.481,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes47c79$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.131,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad6…6a03backed Yes32c77.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes24c73.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.581,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No53c73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.991,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No56c71.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c67.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.63,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.061,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes36c63.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4825946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.615345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.115,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes36c55.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No66c52.06$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.961,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes40c50.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.32437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes35c50.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.73,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes63c49.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7689544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No64c48.39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes29c48.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0345236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes29c47.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.762,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No50c45.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.811,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes33c43.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes47c42.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked No54c42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2431062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes40c41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.47732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No54c41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.41,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0f…b5acbacked Yes45c39.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No50c39.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.814745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes38c37.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4613050.8%66 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc11…dadbbacked No53c37.93$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9315749%77 W · 80 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes34c36.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1727130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c34.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.992,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes48c31.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.242,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked Yes36c31.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2514954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.899571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No59c29.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9250373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No74c28.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.342,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd869…48cabacked Yes39c28.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No62c27.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5927769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2122…efcabacked No67c27.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No54c25.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.682,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c25.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.654,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.154060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12e0…63b3backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked No54c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0423362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes44c23.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.369262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xe985…8cc8backed No54c23.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.758325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No68c22.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.221,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes47c21.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3544536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes48c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No52c20.42$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.88661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No52c20.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd26…7de1backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.879255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No57c18.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0867336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8786…6884backed No62c18.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.999761.9%60 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No56c18.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0241051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.