World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10fdf40a28f66c26ec88d8e4c1cfe6ca6bb4ef156b8130c90dca7d4530f4ea22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,396$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.97 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 493$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 419.31$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 47c | 301.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.19 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 282.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 280.89$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 268.82$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 262.32$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 234.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.17 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 220.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 36c | 156.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 29c | 153$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 152.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 34c | 137.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 67c | 135.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 131.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 125.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 120.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 22c | 109.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 109.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 62c | 102.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 89.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 34c | 89.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 83.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 48c | 80.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 44c | 79.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 30c | 74.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 68.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 68.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 65.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 60.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 56c | 60.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 60.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…2ed5backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 56.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 59c | 53.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 39c | 51.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…5a96backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 44.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 43.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 63c | 43.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 35c | 42.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 46c | 42.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 71c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 36.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 36.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 54c | 31.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Yes | 57c | 29.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 26.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 70c | 25.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 66c | 25.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 49c | 23.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 49c | 21.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked No | 76c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.