World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa34fd2ddf2d41458a811c14ec28a096dc5c7ee549fb100da7f76b3e820875ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 13c | 1,847$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.11 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 60c | 1,155$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 29c | 495.45$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.67 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 419.31$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.39 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 342.06$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 55c | 275.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 271.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.72 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 52c | 257.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 222.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 222.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 48c | 199.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.38 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 58c | 188.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 160.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 41c | 155.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.84 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 56c | 152.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 149.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 59c | 144$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 130.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 46c | 102.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 74c | 102$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 44c | 86.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 44c | 85.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 83.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 80.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 60c | 77.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 75.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 54c | 75.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 50c | 74.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 21c | 72.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 70.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 33c | 69.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 67.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 78c | 59.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +487.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 54c | 57.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 56.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 37c | 53.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 52.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefe…6c44backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 52c | 49.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…66d7backed Yes | 54c | 41.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 45c | 39.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 31c | 38.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed01…89b7backed Yes | 79c | 38.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 51c | 34.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 71c | 33.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 41c | 31.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…34d1backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 48c | 28.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 50c | 25.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 49c | 23.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b6…cd1fbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 63c | 21.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…1461backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…97d8backed Yes | 57c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.