Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2224a194640f8185da258ac660df1dc025482057a97caf504c537f08454deaec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 63c | 912.19$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.61 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 51c | 408.04$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 51c | 214.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 60c | 183.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 52c | 181.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 52c | 171.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 54c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 133.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 66c | 119.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 31c | 105.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 63c | 93.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 75.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…2179backed Yes | 77c | 68.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 56c | 67.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 59c | 55.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 52c | 42.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 52c | 40.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8290…8b08backed No | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…413ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…c1f9backed Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1a…09a9backed Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…9de2backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 45c | 25.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…af64backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…cc96backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf546…23b1backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…e252backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…8060backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a75…5722backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf003…9e74backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a6…1823backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e19…53cfbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…f9ddbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053c…bd91backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…b076backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…31eebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e67…899dbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…794cbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…6bbabacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4423…eae9backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…54d5backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b3…b8e0backed Yes | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…8f17backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…770dbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…eb87backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…2cf6backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e6…6dacbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e77…eafdbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…a35abacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d2…9909backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d87…0b91backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…544cbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd880…3ac8backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeefd…e185backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…a7e7backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…354ebacked No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…5741backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…1265backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…618abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0946…d0e5backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…7fddbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…9105backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd70f…43a2backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…121ebacked No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef6…4959backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…53f7backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…eca1backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.