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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,287
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,080

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,287 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb4e8…895bbacked Yes0c9,126$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes2c1,558$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.842937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde32…700cbacked Yes41c1,374$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.5412950.4%65 W · 64 L+13.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7554…38e2backed Yes7c1,208$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793327.3%9 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99b4…aa0bbacked No64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…f204backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011449.1%56 W · 58 L+17.9wins+0.16per pick33cpaid+104.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes30c333.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes29c321.6$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5625947.5%123 W · 136 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f9…4b22backed Yes36c310$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.61330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfb8…a530backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7287…d1a3backed Yes36c290$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.41040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes58c273.32$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4812345.5%56 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked No58c250.3$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.39647.9%46 W · 50 L-14.8wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-21.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed Yes52c239.69$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5513224.2%32 W · 100 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No61c222.05$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0811359.3%67 W · 46 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes39c200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.896620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c144$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes42c141.58$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No71c130$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.660235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c106.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.569,88545.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L-302.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0054…7f85backed No69c104$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.435162.7%32 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No62c89.92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.44413.6%6 W · 38 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-64.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf596…026cbacked Yes36c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.26937.7%26 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ec…8fd5backed Yes41c61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa5…8d6dbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244151.2%21 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+46.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes28c55.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.641947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6857…f883backed Yes41c53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ac…f57dbacked No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244654.3%25 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No63c45.63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.043971.8%28 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3b1…905fbacked Yes41c42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc48…0a25backed Yes25c41.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes30c40.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.015637.5%21 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.65735.1%20 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.619126.2%50 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33a…2179backed Yes30c39.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.852766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca67…f6e5backed No59c39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6434…64f1backed Yes31c38.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8290…8b08backed No70c38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-52.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee4f…6b49backed No75c35.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459e…6494backed Yes36c34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4154…273abacked Yes37c34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71e…26c7backed Yes36c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa33…e699backed No59c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8c…eddbbacked Yes39c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9700…bad5backed Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55ad…659ebacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6d…6e73backed Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb02…deedbacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1bd…e940backed Yes38c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…c41dbacked No59c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d5…0735backed No59c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7528…624ebacked Yes38c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d07…2a43backed Yes39c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab9…64adbacked Yes39c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf682…78eebacked No59c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…da58backed Yes39c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cd9…6375backed Yes39c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…f6fcbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb53…e5c4backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca71…1e8bbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa846…cc8abacked No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x488c…0510backed No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe37e…a17dbacked No64c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x237b…a9e5backed No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae3…5c6abacked No62c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba9…14f7backed No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc7f…9e07backed No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3311…0ce4backed No64c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3429…46f2backed No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3e…975fbacked No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4d…6597backed No62c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef8c…e257backed No61c19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9b…0cdebacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…18e1backed No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+49.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…591fbacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec9a…85efbacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ba9…3798backed No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa8…f2a6backed No64c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75a9…d63bbacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb762…e58ebacked No62c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc99f…1f78backed No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5982…bdf2backed No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc160…8a27backed No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdee6…8ac5backed No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…d732backed No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c0…54ddbacked No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc639…d84ebacked No61c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.