TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7287…d1a3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
15
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2025, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63–64°F on May 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 72-73°F on April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.37
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on March 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$91
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.7
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+78.6%+$79.2
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+233.3%+$98.7
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on February 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$104.4
Will the highest temperature in London be between 41-42°F on February 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+290.1%+$81.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$110.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Legion XIII be the winning team at LIV Golf Michigan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$62.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 2 QBs get taken in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$20.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Official Trump above $12.50 on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Canadian federal election be between 19-20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$525Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$525
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.